Value of $100 in 1960, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1960 and 2021

Between 1960 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 29.6 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 815.4%, which works out to an average of 3.70% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1960 bought what $0.11 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 1.7% in 1960, up from 1959’s 0.7% even as the economy slipped into recession that April, a downturn that would prove the shortest since World War II. The year’s defining political moment came that November, when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard Nixon in one of the closest presidential elections in U.S. history, decided by roughly two-tenths of a percentage point in the popular vote. Television played a new role in the race: the first-ever televised presidential debate that September, watched by an estimated 70 million people, was widely seen as favoring the telegenic Kennedy. Civil rights protest took a new form that February, when four Black freshmen at North Carolina A&T State University sat down at a whites-only Woolworth’s lunch counter in Greensboro and refused to leave; the sit-in tactic spread to dozens of Southern cities within weeks. Cold War tensions flared that May, when a Soviet missile downed an American U-2 spy plane deep inside Soviet airspace. The pilot, Francis Gary Powers, was captured alive, embarrassing the Eisenhower administration and collapsing a Paris summit called to ease relations with Moscow. Consumer prices finished 1960 199.0% above their 1913 level. First-class postage held at 4 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at $1.00 an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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