Value of $100 in 1920, adjusted to 1948

What happened to prices between 1920 and 1948

Between 1920 and 1948, the Consumer Price Index went from 20 to 24.1. Cumulatively, prices increased 20.5%, which works out to an average of 0.67% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1920 bought what $0.83 buys in 1948.

1920 was the last year of the inflation that had built since the war began: consumer prices rose 15.6% for the year, leaving the CPI more than double its 1913 starting level after seven straight years of increases. The boom behind those increases turned to bust before the year was over. The Federal Reserve, worried about speculation, pushed its discount rate to a record 7% that spring, and wholesale prices, which had led the wartime runup, began collapsing within months. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the resulting downturn from January 1920 to July 1921, one of the shortest but steepest contractions in U.S. history, and consumer prices followed into outright decline, falling 10.5% in 1921. Two constitutional changes reshaped the country that year, too. The 18th Amendment’s ban on alcohol took legal effect January 17, enforced under the Volstead Act Congress had passed the previous October. Then, on August 18, Tennessee’s ratification of the 19th Amendment secured women’s right to vote nationwide, and women cast ballots in a presidential election for the first time that November, when Warren Harding won on a promise to return the country to “normalcy” after a decade of war, pandemic, and rising prices. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged since mid-1919.

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The destination year: 1948

Consumer prices rose 8.1% in 1948, down slightly from 1947’s 14.4% but still the second straight year of sharp postwar inflation now that wartime price controls were fully gone. Congress moved to stabilize a different economy that April, passing the Economic Cooperation Act to fund the plan Secretary of State George Marshall had proposed the year before: more than $13 billion over four years to rebuild Western Europe and counter Soviet influence. The Cold War turned tense closer to the plan’s target that June, when Soviet forces cut off road and rail access to the Western-controlled sectors of Berlin. American and British aircraft responded almost immediately with an airlift of food, fuel, and supplies that would keep the city running for nearly a year. Domestic politics produced its own upset that November: nearly every poll and pundit had predicted a Republican win, but Harry Truman defeated New York Governor Thomas Dewey, handing the Chicago Tribune its famously wrong “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline. Consumer prices finished the year 143.4% above their 1913 level and 40.9% above 1929’s pre-Depression peak. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 40 cents an hour.

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