Value of $100 in 1977, adjusted to 2009

What happened to prices between 1977 and 2009

Between 1977 and 2009, the Consumer Price Index went from 60.6 to 214.537. Cumulatively, prices increased 254.0%, which works out to an average of 4.03% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1977 bought what $0.28 buys in 2009.

Consumer prices rose 6.5% in 1977, ticking back up from 1976’s 5.8% as the economic recovery strengthened, wages climbed, and energy costs pushed higher again. The year opened with a warning about that energy dependence: record cold across the Midwest and Northeast in January and February strained natural gas supplies so badly that schools and factories in several states shut down for days to conserve fuel. Jimmy Carter, inaugurated that January, made energy policy a centerpiece of his presidency, and Congress created the cabinet-level Department of Energy that August to consolidate programs built up piecemeal since the 1973 oil embargo. Culture offered some relief from the anxiety: released that May, Star Wars became the highest-grossing film in history to that point, drawing lines around theater blocks for months. The year also closed an era in a different way. Elvis Presley was found dead at his Graceland home on August 16 at age 42, drawing tens of thousands of mourners to Memphis. A median household earned $13,572 in 1977, a new home sold for a median $48,800, and gas averaged 62 cents a gallon. Consumer prices stood 512.1% above their 1913 level, with the energy anxieties of the year setting up the harder shocks of 1978 and 1979.

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The destination year: 2009

2009 is the rarest kind of year in the modern price data: one where the cost of living went down. The CPI fell 0.4%, the first full-year deflation since 1955, as the Great Recession hollowed out demand and oil unwound from its $147 spike the summer before. Gasoline that had cost over $4 a gallon in July 2008 averaged $2.35 in 2009, and that energy collapse dragged the 12-month inflation rate to −2.1% by July, the deepest reading since 1950. Policymakers treated falling prices not as relief but as a warning: deflation raises the real weight of debt precisely when households are drowning in it, which is why the Federal Reserve pinned interest rates near zero, began buying bonds by the hundreds of billions, and Washington passed a $787 billion stimulus. The medicine took: prices stabilized within a year, and 2009 remains the textbook case of why central banks fear deflation more than moderate inflation.

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