Between 1974 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 49.3 to 270.97.
Cumulatively, prices increased 449.6%, which works out to an average of
3.69% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1974 bought what
$0.18 buys in 2021.
1974 was the year the postwar economy broke its old rules. Consumer prices
rose 11.0%, the fastest annual increase since 1947, as the Arab oil embargo
that ran from October 1973 to March 1974 roughly quadrupled the price of
crude oil worldwide. Gasoline, which had averaged 38.5 cents a gallon in
1973, jumped to 53.2 cents, and shortages forced many states into odd-even
rationing at the pump. Nixon’s wage and price controls, in place in some form
since 1971, expired at the end of April, removing the last brake on prices
just as the oil shock hit. Nixon himself resigned in August over Watergate,
and Gerald Ford’s response to inflation, a voluntary “Whip Inflation Now”
campaign built around lapel buttons, became a symbol of how little
conventional politics could do against the problem. Prices kept climbing even
as the economy weakened: a recession that started in November 1973 dragged
on, the Dow fell to a bear-market bottom of 577.60 in December, and
unemployment was already rising toward the 9% it would reach in 1975. The
combination of rising prices and a shrinking economy gave the decade its
name: stagflation.
The headline number is an average. Individual categories moved very differently over this
period. Here is what $100 of 1974 spending costs in 2021, by category:
Category
Avg. yearly inflation
$100 in 1974 →
All items (CPI-U)
3.69%
$550
Medical care
5.50%
$1,239
Energy
3.98%
$626
Housing
3.93%
$613
Core (all items less food & energy)
3.74%
$561
Food
3.50%
$504
Transportation
3.50%
$504
Apparel
1.19%
$174
Not shown because the BLS began these indexes after 1974: recreation (1993–), education & communication (1993–).
Long periods are sampled every 2 years; the calculator above covers any pair of years.
The destination year: 2021
2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices
rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months
went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since
1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a
fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car
production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the
single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances,
and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back
faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added
fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the
relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal
Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect
expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By
November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began
winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that
would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from
about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25,
unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point
where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the
next two years trying to win.
MLA: “Inflation from 1974 to 2021: $100 is worth $550 today.” InflationCalculator.com, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U data, https://inflationcalculator.com/inflation/1974-to-2021/
APA: InflationCalculator.com. Inflation from 1974 to 2021. Based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U data. Retrieved from https://inflationcalculator.com/inflation/1974-to-2021/