Value of $100 in 1964, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1964 and 2021

Between 1964 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 31 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 774.1%, which works out to an average of 3.88% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1964 bought what $0.11 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 1.3% in 1964, matching 1963’s pace even as a large federal tax cut took effect that year. The Revenue Act of 1964, signed February 26, lowered individual and corporate tax rates significantly, the cut Kennedy had proposed the year before his death and Johnson pushed through Congress as a Keynesian bet that lower taxes would spur enough growth without stoking prices. Congress reshaped civil rights law that July 2, when the Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawed discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national origin in employment and public accommodations, the most sweeping civil rights legislation since Reconstruction. Vietnam policy shifted that August, when Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution after reported attacks on U.S. Navy destroyers, authorizing Johnson to use military force in Vietnam without a formal declaration of war. American pop culture changed that February too: the Beatles landed at New York’s Kennedy Airport and played the Ed Sullivan Show two days later for an estimated 73 million viewers, igniting the “British Invasion.” Consumer prices finished 1964 213.1% above their 1913 level. First-class postage held at 5 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at $1.25 an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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