Value of $100 in 1973, adjusted to 2020

What happened to prices between 1973 and 2020

Between 1973 and 2020, the Consumer Price Index went from 44.4 to 258.811. Cumulatively, prices increased 482.9%, which works out to an average of 3.82% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1973 bought what $0.17 buys in 2020.

Consumer prices rose 6.2% in 1973, nearly double 1972’s 3.2%, as Nixon’s wage and price controls were phased out through the year and pressure the controls had been holding back broke loose. The bigger shock arrived that October, when Arab oil-producing states embargoed exports to the United States and other supporters of Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Crude oil, which had traded around $3 a barrel, approached $12 by early 1974, and gas lines became a fixture outside filling stations nationwide. Earlier in the year, the Paris Peace Accords, signed that January 27, ended direct American combat in Vietnam and set a 60-day deadline for withdrawing remaining U.S. troops, even as fighting between North and South Vietnam went on. Financial markets read the year correctly as a turning point: the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 1,051.70 on January 11, a level it would not reach again until 1980, before the oil shock and rising interest rates dragged it into a two-year bear market. A median household earned $10,512 in 1973, a new home sold for a median $32,500, and gas averaged 38.5 cents a gallon, still under half of what the embargo’s effects would bring the following year. Consumer prices stood 348.5% above their 1913 level by year’s end, with the decade’s worst inflation still ahead.

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The destination year: 2020

2020 was the year the pandemic rewired the price data without triggering the inflation spike that followed it. Consumer prices rose just 1.2% for the year, the mildest pace since 2015, as COVID-19 lockdowns emptied roads, closed airports, and crushed energy demand. Oil told the starkest story: on April 20, U.S. crude futures fell to about negative $37 a barrel, the first negative settlement in the market’s history, as storage capacity ran out and no one wanted the physical barrels. Gasoline followed it down, falling to about $1.80 a gallon nationally that month before recovering to average $2.17 for the year. Grocery prices moved the other way: pantry stocking and meatpacking-plant disruptions pushed food-at-home costs up faster than usual, a rare case of food and energy pulling the index in opposite directions. Washington answered with the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, signed March 27, which sent $1,200 payments to most adults and added $600 a week to unemployment benefits as states ordered widespread business closures. The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate to near zero in two emergency moves that same month and pledged to buy Treasury and mortgage bonds “in the amounts needed” to keep credit markets working, an open-ended commitment beyond even its 2008 response. None of it showed up in the CPI yet: the stimulus, the supply shocks, and the reopening whiplash that followed would build into the fastest inflation in four decades over the next two years.

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