Value of $100 in 1969, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1969 and 2021

Between 1969 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 36.7 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 638.3%, which works out to an average of 3.92% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1969 bought what $0.14 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 5.5% in 1969, up from 1968’s 4.2% and the fastest pace since the Korean War era, as years of Vietnam War spending, a labor market with unemployment under 4%, and expansionary fiscal policy finally showed up fully in prices. Richard Nixon was inaugurated that January 20, pledging to curb rising prices without wage and price controls, a position he would reverse within two years. The decade’s most triumphant moment came that July 20, when Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked on the Moon while Michael Collins orbited above, fulfilling the goal Kennedy had set in 1961 of landing a man on the lunar surface before the decade’s end. Culture and protest both reached new extremes that year: an estimated 400,000 people gathered on a dairy farm in Bethel, New York, for the Woodstock music festival that August, and a police raid on the Stonewall Inn in New York’s Greenwich Village that June touched off days of resistance now credited with launching the modern gay rights movement. Consumer prices finished the decade 270.7% above their 1913 level, up 24.0% from where they stood in 1960. The 1960s had opened with inflation near 1% a year and closed with prices rising faster than at any point since Korea, setting up the Great Inflation that would define the 1970s. First-class postage held at 6 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at $1.60 an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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