Value of $100 in 1951, adjusted to 1981

What happened to prices between 1951 and 1981

Between 1951 and 1981, the Consumer Price Index went from 26 to 90.9. Cumulatively, prices increased 249.6%, which works out to an average of 4.26% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1951 bought what $0.29 buys in 1981.

Consumer prices rose 7.9% in 1951, up sharply from 1950’s 1.3% and the fastest increase since 1947, as Korean War buying and a defense spending surge hit an economy still adjusting to peacetime. Much of the jump came early in the year, before the government stepped in: the Office of Price Stabilization imposed a general ceiling on prices January 26, and the Wage Stabilization Board froze wages soon after, the broadest peacetime controls since the war began that June. The year’s more lasting change came in monetary policy. On March 4, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve signed the Accord, ending the Fed’s wartime obligation to hold down interest rates on government bonds and freeing the central bank to fight inflation on its own terms for the first time since 1942, a shift that would shape Fed independence for decades. Congress raised taxes that October to help pay for the war: the Revenue Act of 1951, signed October 20, lifted individual and corporate income taxes along with a range of excise taxes, the third increase in taxes since fighting began in Korea. Consumer prices finished 1951 162.6% above their 1913 level. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 75 cents an hour.

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The destination year: 1981

1981 was the year the inflation fever finally broke, at an extraordinary price. Consumer prices rose 10.3%, the second year of back-to-back double-digit inflation and the last time the U.S. would see one. To end it, Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve drove its policy rate above 19% and let borrowing costs go where they may: a 30-year mortgage cost more than 18% by autumn, car loans and business credit froze, and homebuilders mailed the Fed two-by-fours in protest. The squeeze tipped the economy into recession in July, the deep 1981–82 downturn that would push unemployment past 10%. But it worked. Inflation fell by nearly half within a year and to under 4% by 1983, the disinflation that defined the following two decades. Even the price of mailing a letter told the year’s story: postage went up twice in eight months.

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