Between 1937 and 1981, the Consumer Price Index went from 14.4 to 90.9.
Cumulatively, prices increased 531.3%, which works out to an average of
4.28% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1937 bought what
$0.16 buys in 1981.
Consumer prices rose 3.6% in 1937, the fastest pace since before the
Depression and the fourth straight year of gains, leaving prices 10.8% above
their 1933 trough though still 15.8% below the
1929 peak. The recovery did not last the year. The National
Bureau of Economic Research dates a new business cycle peak to that May, the
start of what became known as the Recession of 1937-38. Policy tightened on
two fronts at once: the Federal Reserve had doubled bank reserve
requirements over the preceding year to head off inflation it worried was
building, and the federal government pulled back its own spending even as
new Social Security payroll taxes began draining money from paychecks
months before the first benefit checks went out. Together they choked off a
recovery that had not yet reached its pre-Depression footing. Not every
milestone that year was economic. The Golden Gate Bridge opened to traffic
on May 27 after four years of construction, at the time the longest
suspension bridge span in the world, a rare bright spot in a year that would
end with the economy sliding backward again. First-class postage held at 3
cents.
The headline number is an average. Individual categories moved very differently over this
period. Here is what $100 of 1937 spending costs in 1981, by category:
Category
Avg. yearly inflation
$100 in 1937 →
All items (CPI-U)
4.28%
$631
Medical care
4.85%
$805
Food
4.57%
$715
Transportation
4.32%
$643
Apparel
3.39%
$433
Not shown because the BLS began these indexes after 1937: core (all items less food & energy) (1957–), energy (1957–), housing (1967–), recreation (1993–), education & communication (1993–).
Long periods are sampled every 2 years; the calculator above covers any pair of years.
The destination year: 1981
1981 was the year the inflation fever finally broke, at an extraordinary price.
Consumer prices rose 10.3%, the second year of back-to-back double-digit
inflation and the last time the U.S. would see one. To end it, Paul Volcker’s
Federal Reserve drove its policy rate above 19% and let borrowing costs go
where they may: a 30-year mortgage cost more than 18% by autumn, car loans and
business credit froze, and homebuilders mailed the Fed two-by-fours in protest.
The squeeze tipped the economy into recession in July, the deep 1981–82
downturn that would push unemployment past 10%. But it worked. Inflation fell
by nearly half within a year and to under 4% by 1983, the disinflation that
defined the following two decades. Even the price of mailing a letter told the
year’s story: postage went up twice in eight months.
MLA: “Inflation from 1937 to 1981: $100 is worth $631 today.” InflationCalculator.com, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U data, https://inflationcalculator.com/inflation/1937-to-1981/
APA: InflationCalculator.com. Inflation from 1937 to 1981. Based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U data. Retrieved from https://inflationcalculator.com/inflation/1937-to-1981/