Value of $100 in 1937, adjusted to 1941

What happened to prices between 1937 and 1941

Between 1937 and 1941, the Consumer Price Index went from 14.4 to 14.7. Cumulatively, prices increased 2.1%, which works out to an average of 0.52% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1937 bought what $0.98 buys in 1941.

Consumer prices rose 3.6% in 1937, the fastest pace since before the Depression and the fourth straight year of gains, leaving prices 10.8% above their 1933 trough though still 15.8% below the 1929 peak. The recovery did not last the year. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates a new business cycle peak to that May, the start of what became known as the Recession of 1937-38. Policy tightened on two fronts at once: the Federal Reserve had doubled bank reserve requirements over the preceding year to head off inflation it worried was building, and the federal government pulled back its own spending even as new Social Security payroll taxes began draining money from paychecks months before the first benefit checks went out. Together they choked off a recovery that had not yet reached its pre-Depression footing. Not every milestone that year was economic. The Golden Gate Bridge opened to traffic on May 27 after four years of construction, at the time the longest suspension bridge span in the world, a rare bright spot in a year that would end with the economy sliding backward again. First-class postage held at 3 cents.

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The destination year: 1941

Consumer prices rose 5.0% in 1941, up sharply from just 0.7% in 1940 and the fastest annual increase since 1920, as rearmament and Lend-Lease production pushed demand well ahead of peacetime supply even before the United States formally joined the war. Congress had already tilted the country away from neutrality that March, passing the Lend-Lease Act to arm Britain, and later the Soviet Union and other Allies, without requiring immediate payment. That April, the government created the Office of Price Administration to hold down the cost of civilian goods, the start of a price-control system that would keep official inflation numbers well below what wartime demand alone would have produced over the next four years. Then, on December 7, Japan attacked the naval base at Pearl Harbor, destroying much of the Pacific Fleet and killing more than 2,400 Americans. Congress declared war on Japan the next day and on Germany and Italy three days later, ending years of debate over whether the United States should stay out of the conflict spreading across Europe and Asia. Consumer prices, already up 48.5% from their 1913 level, would climb far faster over the next two years as the economy converted fully to war production. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 30 cents an hour.

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