Value of $100 in 1931, adjusted to 1978

What happened to prices between 1931 and 1978

Between 1931 and 1978, the Consumer Price Index went from 15.2 to 65.2. Cumulatively, prices increased 328.9%, which works out to an average of 3.15% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1931 bought what $0.23 buys in 1978.

Consumer prices fell 9.0% in 1931, a sharp acceleration from the 2.3% decline in 1930, as falling wages, collapsing farm prices, and a fresh wave of bank failures fed a downward spiral that the still-contracting economy could not shake. More than 2,000 banks failed during the year, far more than in 1930, as depositors who had watched earlier banks go under pulled their cash out of ones they feared were next. The crisis went international that September, when Britain suspended the gold standard amid a run on sterling. The Federal Reserve’s response made the domestic downturn worse before it made anything better: to defend the dollar’s own gold backing, the Fed raised its discount rate sharply that October, in two steps from 1.5% to 3.5%, tightening credit at the exact moment the economy needed the opposite. Not every headline that year was grim. The Empire State Building opened its doors on May 1, briefly the tallest building in the world, though so much of Manhattan’s office space sat vacant amid the Depression that tenants stayed scarce and New Yorkers took to calling it the “Empty State Building.” Consumer prices had now fallen for two straight years and stood 53.5% above their 1913 level, down from the 68.7% margin of just twelve months before. First-class postage remained at 2 cents.

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The destination year: 1978

Consumer prices rose 7.6% in 1978, accelerating for a second straight year as rising wages, a weakening dollar, and climbing energy costs outpaced the Federal Reserve’s response. Fed chairman G. William Miller, appointed by Carter that March, kept interest rates too low to slow the trend, a policy later cited as one reason inflation kept building toward the following year’s crisis. California voters responded to their own version of the problem that June, passing Proposition 13 by nearly two to one to cap property tax rates after years of rising home values had pushed tax bills up alongside them. Foreign policy delivered one of the decade’s genuine breakthroughs: President Carter brought Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin together for thirteen days of negotiations at Camp David that September, producing a framework for peace between the two countries that was signed as a treaty the following March. First-class postage rose to 15 cents that May 29, a rate that would hold longer than any other in the decade. The year ended in tragedy: cult leader Jim Jones directed the mass murder-suicide of more than 900 followers at a remote settlement in Guyana that November 18. A median household earned $15,064 in 1978, a new home sold for a median $55,700, and gas averaged 63 cents a gallon. Consumer prices stood 558.6% above their 1913 level, with the decade’s worst inflation still to come.

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