Value of $100 in 1931, adjusted to 1941

What happened to prices between 1931 and 1941

Between 1931 and 1941, the Consumer Price Index went from 15.2 to 14.7. Cumulatively, prices declined 3.3%, which works out to an average of -0.33% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1931 bought what $1.03 buys in 1941.

Consumer prices fell 9.0% in 1931, a sharp acceleration from the 2.3% decline in 1930, as falling wages, collapsing farm prices, and a fresh wave of bank failures fed a downward spiral that the still-contracting economy could not shake. More than 2,000 banks failed during the year, far more than in 1930, as depositors who had watched earlier banks go under pulled their cash out of ones they feared were next. The crisis went international that September, when Britain suspended the gold standard amid a run on sterling. The Federal Reserve’s response made the domestic downturn worse before it made anything better: to defend the dollar’s own gold backing, the Fed raised its discount rate sharply that October, in two steps from 1.5% to 3.5%, tightening credit at the exact moment the economy needed the opposite. Not every headline that year was grim. The Empire State Building opened its doors on May 1, briefly the tallest building in the world, though so much of Manhattan’s office space sat vacant amid the Depression that tenants stayed scarce and New Yorkers took to calling it the “Empty State Building.” Consumer prices had now fallen for two straight years and stood 53.5% above their 1913 level, down from the 68.7% margin of just twelve months before. First-class postage remained at 2 cents.

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The destination year: 1941

Consumer prices rose 5.0% in 1941, up sharply from just 0.7% in 1940 and the fastest annual increase since 1920, as rearmament and Lend-Lease production pushed demand well ahead of peacetime supply even before the United States formally joined the war. Congress had already tilted the country away from neutrality that March, passing the Lend-Lease Act to arm Britain, and later the Soviet Union and other Allies, without requiring immediate payment. That April, the government created the Office of Price Administration to hold down the cost of civilian goods, the start of a price-control system that would keep official inflation numbers well below what wartime demand alone would have produced over the next four years. Then, on December 7, Japan attacked the naval base at Pearl Harbor, destroying much of the Pacific Fleet and killing more than 2,400 Americans. Congress declared war on Japan the next day and on Germany and Italy three days later, ending years of debate over whether the United States should stay out of the conflict spreading across Europe and Asia. Consumer prices, already up 48.5% from their 1913 level, would climb far faster over the next two years as the economy converted fully to war production. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 30 cents an hour.

More about inflation in 1941 →