Value of $100 in 1930, adjusted to 1954

What happened to prices between 1930 and 1954

Between 1930 and 1954, the Consumer Price Index went from 16.7 to 26.9. Cumulatively, prices increased 61.1%, which works out to an average of 2.01% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1930 bought what $0.62 buys in 1954.

Consumer prices fell 2.3% in 1930, a mild decline compared with what was coming but the first sign that the summer 1929 downturn was not going to be short. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates that contraction from August 1929, and by the time it finally bottomed out in March 1933 it would run 43 months, the longest of any downturn in the NBER’s chronology back to 1854. Congress made the trade picture worse in June, when President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising duties on more than 20,000 imported goods to some of the highest levels in a century. Trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, and global trade volumes collapsed over the next several years, deepening a downturn economists still debate how much the tariff itself worsened. The financial system cracked that fall: a regional banking panic culminated in the December 11 failure of the Bank of United States in New York, at the time the largest bank failure in American history, wiping out more than $200 million in deposits. It was the first of four banking panics that would hit the country before 1933 was out. Consumer prices still stood 68.7% above their 1913 starting point, but the direction had clearly turned. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged for eleven straight years.

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The destination year: 1954

Consumer prices rose 0.7% in 1954, extending 1953’s 0.8% slowdown even as the economy tipped into recession, an early example of prices continuing to rise through a downturn rather than falling with it. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates that recession from July 1953 to May 1954, as defense spending fell after the Korean War armistice and the tighter monetary policy of the year before worked its way through the economy. The Supreme Court reshaped a different part of American life that spring: its unanimous May 17 ruling in Brown v. Board of Education held that “separate but equal” public schools violated the Constitution, overturning the legal basis for segregated education. Washington also closed the book on a different fight that year. Following the televised Army-McCarthy hearings that spring, the Senate voted 67 to 22 on December 2 to condemn Senator Joseph McCarthy’s conduct, ending his dominance of American politics after four years of anti-communist investigations. Consumer prices finished 1954 171.7% above their 1913 level, essentially flat with 1953 as the mild recession held the cost of living in check. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 75 cents an hour.

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