Value of $100 in 1925, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1925 and 2021

Between 1925 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.5 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 1448.4%, which works out to an average of 2.90% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1925 bought what $0.06 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 2.3% in 1925, the CPI’s largest single-year increase since the deflationary swings of the early 1920s, though still mild next to the double-digit inflation of the World War I years. The country’s cultural fault lines were on full display that summer in Dayton, Tennessee, where high school teacher John Scopes was tried July 10-21 for violating a state law against teaching evolution, a case that drew national press coverage and pitted prosecutor William Jennings Bryan against defense attorney Clarence Darrow. Real estate speculation, meanwhile, peaked in Florida, where buyers flipped undeveloped land in the Miami area on thin down payments, driving prices far above what the land itself could support; the bubble would collapse the following year. Detroit reshuffled that June too: Walter Chrysler reorganized the struggling Maxwell Motor Company into Chrysler Corporation, the start of what would become one of the American auto industry’s “Big Three.” First-class postage held at 2 cents for the sixth straight year.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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