Value of $100 in 1920, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1920 and 2021

Between 1920 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 20 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 1254.9%, which works out to an average of 2.61% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1920 bought what $0.07 buys in 2021.

1920 was the last year of the inflation that had built since the war began: consumer prices rose 15.6% for the year, leaving the CPI more than double its 1913 starting level after seven straight years of increases. The boom behind those increases turned to bust before the year was over. The Federal Reserve, worried about speculation, pushed its discount rate to a record 7% that spring, and wholesale prices, which had led the wartime runup, began collapsing within months. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the resulting downturn from January 1920 to July 1921, one of the shortest but steepest contractions in U.S. history, and consumer prices followed into outright decline, falling 10.5% in 1921. Two constitutional changes reshaped the country that year, too. The 18th Amendment’s ban on alcohol took legal effect January 17, enforced under the Volstead Act Congress had passed the previous October. Then, on August 18, Tennessee’s ratification of the 19th Amendment secured women’s right to vote nationwide, and women cast ballots in a presidential election for the first time that November, when Warren Harding won on a promise to return the country to “normalcy” after a decade of war, pandemic, and rising prices. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged since mid-1919.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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