Value of $100 in 1962, adjusted to 2009

What happened to prices between 1962 and 2009

Between 1962 and 2009, the Consumer Price Index went from 30.2 to 214.537. Cumulatively, prices increased 610.4%, which works out to an average of 4.26% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1962 bought what $0.14 buys in 2009.

Consumer prices rose 1.0% in 1962, matching 1961’s pace as inflation stayed remarkably low and unemployment slowly declined from its recession-era highs. That January, Kennedy’s Council of Economic Advisers introduced “wage-price guideposts,” non-binding targets meant to keep pay and price increases in line with productivity growth without formal controls. The space race delivered a milestone that February, when John Glenn’s Friendship 7 capsule circled Earth three times, making him the first American to orbit the planet. Markets got a scare that spring: a dispute over U.S. Steel’s April price increase, which Kennedy publicly pressured the company into rolling back, rattled investors, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 5.7% on May 28, its steepest one-day drop since the 1929 crash. The year’s gravest moment came that October, when American reconnaissance photographed Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, setting off a 13-day standoff that brought the two superpowers closer to nuclear war than at any other point in the Cold War before the Soviet Union agreed to remove the missiles in exchange for a U.S. pledge not to invade the island. Consumer prices finished 1962 205.1% above their 1913 level. First-class postage held at 4 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at $1.15 an hour.

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The destination year: 2009

2009 is the rarest kind of year in the modern price data: one where the cost of living went down. The CPI fell 0.4%, the first full-year deflation since 1955, as the Great Recession hollowed out demand and oil unwound from its $147 spike the summer before. Gasoline that had cost over $4 a gallon in July 2008 averaged $2.35 in 2009, and that energy collapse dragged the 12-month inflation rate to −2.1% by July, the deepest reading since 1950. Policymakers treated falling prices not as relief but as a warning: deflation raises the real weight of debt precisely when households are drowning in it, which is why the Federal Reserve pinned interest rates near zero, began buying bonds by the hundreds of billions, and Washington passed a $787 billion stimulus. The medicine took: prices stabilized within a year, and 2009 remains the textbook case of why central banks fear deflation more than moderate inflation.

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