Value of $100 in 1921, adjusted to 1934

What happened to prices between 1921 and 1934

Between 1921 and 1934, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.9 to 13.4. Cumulatively, prices declined 25.1%, which works out to an average of -2.20% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1921 bought what $1.34 buys in 1934.

Consumer prices fell 10.5% in 1921, the mirror image of the wartime inflation that had more than doubled the cost of living between 1913 and 1920. The Depression of 1920-21, one of the sharpest contractions in U.S. history, bottomed out that July according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, even though it had lasted barely eighteen months. Unemployment climbed toward one worker in ten as businesses cut production and prices to work through wartime inventories, but the same collapse in prices also meant the recovery, once it started, had room to run without reigniting inflation. Warren Harding took office March 4, promising a return to “normalcy” after a decade of war, pandemic, labor unrest, and rapid price swings; his administration moved quickly to cut top income tax rates and federal spending. Congress also acted on immigration that year: the Emergency Quota Act, signed May 19, capped annual arrivals from each country at 3% of that nationality’s population in the 1910 census, the first time the United States had set a numerical ceiling on immigration. The law favored northern and western Europe and cut total immigration by more than half compared with prewar levels; Congress tightened the formula again in 1924. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged since mid-1919.

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The destination year: 1934

Consumer prices rose 3.1% in 1934, the first annual increase since 1926; every year from 1927 through 1933 had been flat or falling, so the turn marked a real break after eight years without a single gain. Currency policy did some of the work. The Gold Reserve Act, signed January 30, formally devalued the dollar by raising the official price of gold from $20.67 to $35 an ounce, part of the administration’s deliberate effort to reflate prices after four straight years of deflation. Financial regulation tightened at the same time: the Securities Exchange Act of June 6 created the Securities and Exchange Commission to police stock exchanges and enforce disclosure rules, a direct response to the speculation blamed for the 1929 crash. The recovery was fragile and unevenly felt, especially on the Great Plains, where drought had turned overplowed farmland to dust. Over May 9-11, high winds lifted an estimated 350 million tons of topsoil into the air, darkening skies as far away as Washington and New York and giving city readers who had never seen a wheat field a first glimpse of the disaster building in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Consumer prices stood 35.4% above their 1913 level, still well below the 1929 peak but rising for the first time since the Depression began. First-class postage held at 3 cents.

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