Value of $100 in 1913, adjusted to 1974

What happened to prices between 1913 and 1974

Between 1913 and 1974, the Consumer Price Index went from 9.9 to 49.3. Cumulatively, prices increased 398.0%, which works out to an average of 2.67% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1913 bought what $0.20 buys in 1974.

1913 is where this site’s price history begins, because it’s where the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ own consumer price data begins. The CPI wasn’t published in real time back then; the BLS built the earliest index retroactively from retail price records collected starting in 1913, which makes every dollar figure on this site ultimately anchored to that year’s prices. It was also the year the machinery of modern federal economic policy was built. The 16th Amendment, ratified in February, cleared the constitutional path for a federal income tax, and the Revenue Act that followed in October imposed a top rate of just 7% on income above $500,000, a narrow tax that would later be reshaped into the broad-based system that funds the government today. In December, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, creating the central bank that would eventually take on fighting inflation as one of its core jobs, including the 19%-plus interest rates it deployed against the 1970s and early 1980s price surge. Consumer life in 1913 was correspondingly simple by later standards: a first-class stamp cost 2 cents, a price that held from 1885 all the way to 1917, and the Ford Motor Company introduced the moving assembly line at its Highland Park plant that year, a manufacturing breakthrough that would spend the next decade driving down the cost of a car faster than prices elsewhere were rising.

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The destination year: 1974

1974 was the year the postwar economy broke its old rules. Consumer prices rose 11.0%, the fastest annual increase since 1947, as the Arab oil embargo that ran from October 1973 to March 1974 roughly quadrupled the price of crude oil worldwide. Gasoline, which had averaged 38.5 cents a gallon in 1973, jumped to 53.2 cents, and shortages forced many states into odd-even rationing at the pump. Nixon’s wage and price controls, in place in some form since 1971, expired at the end of April, removing the last brake on prices just as the oil shock hit. Nixon himself resigned in August over Watergate, and Gerald Ford’s response to inflation, a voluntary “Whip Inflation Now” campaign built around lapel buttons, became a symbol of how little conventional politics could do against the problem. Prices kept climbing even as the economy weakened: a recession that started in November 1973 dragged on, the Dow fell to a bear-market bottom of 577.60 in December, and unemployment was already rising toward the 9% it would reach in 1975. The combination of rising prices and a shrinking economy gave the decade its name: stagflation.

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