Value of $100 in 1975, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1975 and 2021

Between 1975 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 53.8 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 403.7%, which works out to an average of 3.58% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1975 bought what $0.20 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 9.1% in 1975, easing slightly from 1974’s 11.0% but still running far above anything the country had experienced before the decade began. The recession that started in November 1973, the deepest since the Great Depression, bottomed out that March, yet unemployment kept climbing through the year and touched 9%, a combination of high inflation and high joblessness that had no precedent in the postwar data. Vietnam ended that April 30, when North Vietnamese forces captured Saigon and the last Americans were evacuated by helicopter from the U.S. embassy roof. Fiscal strain hit closer to home too: New York City, facing bankruptcy after years of borrowing to paper over budget gaps, asked Washington for help that October. President Ford’s initial refusal produced the Daily News headline “Ford to City: Drop Dead,” though he ultimately signed a federal loan package that December. Amid the gloom, Bill Gates and Paul Allen founded Microsoft that April in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to sell a version of the BASIC programming language for the Altair 8800, one of the first personal computers sold to hobbyists. A median household earned $11,800 in 1975, a new home sold for a median $39,300, and first-class postage held at 10 cents, unchanged since 1974’s increase. Consumer prices stood 443.4% above their 1913 level, with the decade barely past its midpoint.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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