Value of $100 in 1974, adjusted to 1979

What happened to prices between 1974 and 1979

Between 1974 and 1979, the Consumer Price Index went from 49.3 to 72.6. Cumulatively, prices increased 47.3%, which works out to an average of 8.05% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1974 bought what $0.68 buys in 1979.

1974 was the year the postwar economy broke its old rules. Consumer prices rose 11.0%, the fastest annual increase since 1947, as the Arab oil embargo that ran from October 1973 to March 1974 roughly quadrupled the price of crude oil worldwide. Gasoline, which had averaged 38.5 cents a gallon in 1973, jumped to 53.2 cents, and shortages forced many states into odd-even rationing at the pump. Nixon’s wage and price controls, in place in some form since 1971, expired at the end of April, removing the last brake on prices just as the oil shock hit. Nixon himself resigned in August over Watergate, and Gerald Ford’s response to inflation, a voluntary “Whip Inflation Now” campaign built around lapel buttons, became a symbol of how little conventional politics could do against the problem. Prices kept climbing even as the economy weakened: a recession that started in November 1973 dragged on, the Dow fell to a bear-market bottom of 577.60 in December, and unemployment was already rising toward the 9% it would reach in 1975. The combination of rising prices and a shrinking economy gave the decade its name: stagflation.

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The destination year: 1979

Consumer prices rose 11.3% in 1979, the fastest pace since 1947 and the decade’s second bout of double-digit inflation after 1974’s 11.0%. The trigger was familiar: the Iranian Revolution that January halted Iran’s oil exports, and panic buying amplified the shortage, sending crude prices sharply higher over the year and motorists back into gas lines, with some states reviving the odd-even rationing last seen in 1974. Paul Volcker, appointed Federal Reserve chairman that August, responded with a strategy shift announced that October: the Fed would target the money supply directly and let interest rates rise as high as necessary to break inflation, whatever the short-term cost. That cost would arrive as a deep recession in 1981-82, but by year’s end 1979 had already delivered enough turmoil on its own. A reactor at the Three Mile Island plant near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, suffered a partial core meltdown that March 28, the worst commercial nuclear accident in U.S. history, and on November 4, militants in Tehran stormed the U.S. embassy and took 52 Americans hostage, beginning a 444-day crisis that consumed the rest of Carter’s presidency. A median household earned $16,461 in 1979, a new home sold for a median $62,900, and gas jumped to 86 cents a gallon. Consumer prices finished the decade 97.8% above where they stood in 1969, very nearly doubling in ten years, and stood 633.3% above their 1913 level. The 1970s had opened with inflation cooling from the 1969 spike and closed with prices rising faster than at any point since 1947, setting up the Great Inflation’s final act in 1980.

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