Value of $100 in 1971, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1971 and 2021

Between 1971 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 40.5 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 569.1%, which works out to an average of 3.87% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1971 bought what $0.15 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 4.4% in 1971, down from 1970’s 5.7% as the recession that started in December 1969 finally cooled demand. The bigger economic story came that August 15, when President Nixon closed the “gold window” that let foreign governments exchange dollars for gold, ending the Bretton Woods system that had anchored the dollar since World War II. The same address announced a 90-day freeze on wages and prices, the first peacetime controls the country had seen, an attempt to break inflationary expectations without the slower grind of tighter money. The “Nixon Shock,” as it came to be known, let the dollar float against other currencies for the first time and set the stage for a wage-and-price-control regime that would run in various forms into 1973. Politically, the country lowered its voting age that year: the 26th Amendment, ratified July 1, extended the vote to 18-year-olds, capping a campaign built on the argument that men old enough to be drafted to Vietnam were old enough to vote for the people who sent them. The Postal Service, independent since 1970’s reorganization, raised first-class postage from 6 to 8 cents that May. A median household earned $9,028 in 1971, up from $8,734 the year before, while gas held near 36 cents a gallon and a new home sold for a median $25,200. Consumer prices stood 309.1% above their 1913 level by year’s end, still years away from the double-digit inflation the controls were meant to prevent.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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