Value of $100 in 1947, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1947 and 2021

Between 1947 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 22.3 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 1115.1%, which works out to an average of 3.43% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1947 bought what $0.08 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 14.4% in 1947, up from 1946’s 8.3% and the fastest annual increase since 1920, as the last of the wartime price controls disappeared and a year of strikes, wage catch-up, and lingering shortages hit consumers all at once. Congress answered the previous year’s strike wave that June, overriding President Truman’s veto to pass the Taft-Hartley Act, which banned secondary boycotts and the closed shop and let states adopt “right-to-work” laws curbing union power. American attention was also turning outward. In a June 5 speech at Harvard, Secretary of State George Marshall outlined a U.S.-funded plan to rebuild Western Europe’s economies, an effort that would become known as the Marshall Plan once Congress funded it the following year. The government reorganized itself for the confrontation with the Soviet Union that plan was partly designed to prevent: the National Security Act, signed July 26, created the Department of Defense, the Air Force as a separate service, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the National Security Council. Consumer prices stood 125.3% above their 1913 level and 30.4% above 1929’s pre-Depression peak, up from just 1.2% above it four years earlier. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 40 cents an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

More about inflation in 2021 →