Value of $100 in 1947, adjusted to 2009

What happened to prices between 1947 and 2009

Between 1947 and 2009, the Consumer Price Index went from 22.3 to 214.537. Cumulatively, prices increased 862.0%, which works out to an average of 3.72% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1947 bought what $0.10 buys in 2009.

Consumer prices rose 14.4% in 1947, up from 1946’s 8.3% and the fastest annual increase since 1920, as the last of the wartime price controls disappeared and a year of strikes, wage catch-up, and lingering shortages hit consumers all at once. Congress answered the previous year’s strike wave that June, overriding President Truman’s veto to pass the Taft-Hartley Act, which banned secondary boycotts and the closed shop and let states adopt “right-to-work” laws curbing union power. American attention was also turning outward. In a June 5 speech at Harvard, Secretary of State George Marshall outlined a U.S.-funded plan to rebuild Western Europe’s economies, an effort that would become known as the Marshall Plan once Congress funded it the following year. The government reorganized itself for the confrontation with the Soviet Union that plan was partly designed to prevent: the National Security Act, signed July 26, created the Department of Defense, the Air Force as a separate service, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the National Security Council. Consumer prices stood 125.3% above their 1913 level and 30.4% above 1929’s pre-Depression peak, up from just 1.2% above it four years earlier. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 40 cents an hour.

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The destination year: 2009

2009 is the rarest kind of year in the modern price data: one where the cost of living went down. The CPI fell 0.4%, the first full-year deflation since 1955, as the Great Recession hollowed out demand and oil unwound from its $147 spike the summer before. Gasoline that had cost over $4 a gallon in July 2008 averaged $2.35 in 2009, and that energy collapse dragged the 12-month inflation rate to −2.1% by July, the deepest reading since 1950. Policymakers treated falling prices not as relief but as a warning: deflation raises the real weight of debt precisely when households are drowning in it, which is why the Federal Reserve pinned interest rates near zero, began buying bonds by the hundreds of billions, and Washington passed a $787 billion stimulus. The medicine took: prices stabilized within a year, and 2009 remains the textbook case of why central banks fear deflation more than moderate inflation.

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