Value of $100 in 1943, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1943 and 2021

Between 1943 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.3 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 1466.3%, which works out to an average of 3.59% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1943 bought what $0.06 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 6.1% in 1943, a slower pace than 1942’s surge but still well above anything the country had seen before the war. The slowdown owed largely to the “Hold the Line” order, issued that April, which froze most wages, prices, and rents at their current levels after the previous year’s jump showed how far demand had outrun the existing controls. Rationing grew more sophisticated alongside the freeze: starting in February, a points system split scarce goods into red points for meat, butter, and other fats and blue points for canned and processed foods, letting households budget across categories instead of simply going without once a flat quota ran dry. The government also changed how it collected the taxes paying for all of it. The Current Tax Payment Act, signed June 9, required employers to withhold federal income tax directly from paychecks for the first time, smoothing the flow of wartime revenue and creating the pay-as-you-go system still used today. Consumer prices stood 74.7% above their 1913 level and 33.1% above 1933’s Depression-era low. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 30 cents an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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