Value of $100 in 1942, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 1942 and 2021

Between 1942 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 16.3 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 1562.4%, which works out to an average of 3.62% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1942 bought what $0.06 buys in 2021.

Consumer prices rose 10.9% in 1942, up from 1941’s already rapid 5.0% and the fastest increase since 1920, as the economy’s crash conversion to war production collided with shrinking supplies of civilian goods. The government tried to contain it: the General Maximum Price Regulation, effective May 18 and known as “General Max,” froze most retail prices at their highest March level, the broadest price control Washington had ever attempted. Rationing followed close behind. Sugar rationing began that May and gasoline rationing went nationwide in December, the leading edge of a system that would eventually cover meat, coffee, shoes, tires, and dozens of other goods before the war ended. The year’s other defining wartime measure had nothing to do with prices. Executive Order 9066, signed February 19, authorized the military to remove more than 110,000 Japanese Americans, most of them U.S. citizens, from the West Coast and hold them in inland internment camps for the war’s duration, one of the era’s starkest violations of civil liberties. Even with price controls in place, consumer prices climbed more than 10% for the first time since 1920, leaving the CPI 64.6% above its 1913 level. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 30 cents an hour.

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The destination year: 2021

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

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