Value of $100 in 1929, adjusted to 1941

What happened to prices between 1929 and 1941

Between 1929 and 1941, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.1 to 14.7. Cumulatively, prices declined 14.0%, which works out to an average of -1.25% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1929 bought what $1.16 buys in 1941.

Consumer prices were unchanged in 1929, the CPI’s annual average flat for the second time in six years and a fitting close to a decade that began with wartime inflation and ended in rough price stability. By year’s end the index stood 14.5% below its 1920 peak and roughly 73% above its 1913 starting point, a reminder that even a “stable” decade left prices well above where they had started. The stability in the cost of living masked what was building in financial markets. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the start of the Great Depression to that August, the month the business cycle peaked, months before most Americans noticed anything was wrong. The break came that October: panic selling hit Wall Street on Black Thursday, October 24, and returned even worse on Black Tuesday, October 29, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 12% in a single session. Billions of dollars in paper wealth disappeared within days, and the crash marked the start of a downturn that would pull consumer prices into their steepest sustained decline of the 20th century over the next four years. First-class postage was still 2 cents, a price that would hold until 1932.

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The destination year: 1941

Consumer prices rose 5.0% in 1941, up sharply from just 0.7% in 1940 and the fastest annual increase since 1920, as rearmament and Lend-Lease production pushed demand well ahead of peacetime supply even before the United States formally joined the war. Congress had already tilted the country away from neutrality that March, passing the Lend-Lease Act to arm Britain, and later the Soviet Union and other Allies, without requiring immediate payment. That April, the government created the Office of Price Administration to hold down the cost of civilian goods, the start of a price-control system that would keep official inflation numbers well below what wartime demand alone would have produced over the next four years. Then, on December 7, Japan attacked the naval base at Pearl Harbor, destroying much of the Pacific Fleet and killing more than 2,400 Americans. Congress declared war on Japan the next day and on Germany and Italy three days later, ending years of debate over whether the United States should stay out of the conflict spreading across Europe and Asia. Consumer prices, already up 48.5% from their 1913 level, would climb far faster over the next two years as the economy converted fully to war production. First-class postage held at 3 cents, and the minimum wage stayed at 30 cents an hour.

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