Value of $100 in 1928, adjusted to 1930

What happened to prices between 1928 and 1930

Between 1928 and 1930, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.1 to 16.7. Cumulatively, prices declined 2.3%, which works out to an average of -1.18% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1928 bought what $1.02 buys in 1930.

Consumer prices fell 1.7% in 1928, the second straight year of mild decline even as the stock market climbed sharply, a widening gap between asset prices and the cost of living that later economists pointed to as an early warning sign. The Federal Reserve tightened policy repeatedly over the year, raising its discount rate in an effort to slow the flood of borrowed money pouring into stock purchases without derailing the broader economy, a balancing act it ultimately failed to manage. Herbert Hoover won the presidential election that November, defeating Democrat Al Smith on a platform built around continuing the prosperity of the Coolidge years; few voters or policymakers anticipated how quickly that prosperity would end. First-class postage remained at 2 cents, a price that had now held for nine straight years.

More about inflation in 1928 →

The destination year: 1930

Consumer prices fell 2.3% in 1930, a mild decline compared with what was coming but the first sign that the summer 1929 downturn was not going to be short. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates that contraction from August 1929, and by the time it finally bottomed out in March 1933 it would run 43 months, the longest of any downturn in the NBER’s chronology back to 1854. Congress made the trade picture worse in June, when President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising duties on more than 20,000 imported goods to some of the highest levels in a century. Trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, and global trade volumes collapsed over the next several years, deepening a downturn economists still debate how much the tariff itself worsened. The financial system cracked that fall: a regional banking panic culminated in the December 11 failure of the Bank of United States in New York, at the time the largest bank failure in American history, wiping out more than $200 million in deposits. It was the first of four banking panics that would hit the country before 1933 was out. Consumer prices still stood 68.7% above their 1913 starting point, but the direction had clearly turned. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged for eleven straight years.

More about inflation in 1930 →