Value of $100 in 1927, adjusted to 1931

What happened to prices between 1927 and 1931

Between 1927 and 1931, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.4 to 15.2. Cumulatively, prices declined 12.6%, which works out to an average of -3.32% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1927 bought what $1.14 buys in 1931.

Consumer prices fell 1.7% in 1927, a mild retreat after three years of gradual increases and part of a shallow up-and-down pattern that ran through the second half of the decade. Aviation delivered the year’s signature moment: Charles Lindbergh departed Roosevelt Field, New York, on May 20 and landed at Le Bourget Field outside Paris roughly 33.5 hours later, the first person to fly the Atlantic solo and nonstop. Detroit closed a chapter of its own that May, when Ford halted the Model T’s production line after nearly 19 years and more than 15 million cars sold, idling tens of thousands of workers while its factories retooled for the Model A. The Federal Reserve, meeting with European central bankers that summer, cut its discount rate to ease pressure on currencies still recovering from the war, a move later cited by economists including Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz as fuel for the stock market speculation that built through the following two years. First-class postage held at 2 cents.

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The destination year: 1931

Consumer prices fell 9.0% in 1931, a sharp acceleration from the 2.3% decline in 1930, as falling wages, collapsing farm prices, and a fresh wave of bank failures fed a downward spiral that the still-contracting economy could not shake. More than 2,000 banks failed during the year, far more than in 1930, as depositors who had watched earlier banks go under pulled their cash out of ones they feared were next. The crisis went international that September, when Britain suspended the gold standard amid a run on sterling. The Federal Reserve’s response made the domestic downturn worse before it made anything better: to defend the dollar’s own gold backing, the Fed raised its discount rate sharply that October, in two steps from 1.5% to 3.5%, tightening credit at the exact moment the economy needed the opposite. Not every headline that year was grim. The Empire State Building opened its doors on May 1, briefly the tallest building in the world, though so much of Manhattan’s office space sat vacant amid the Depression that tenants stayed scarce and New Yorkers took to calling it the “Empty State Building.” Consumer prices had now fallen for two straight years and stood 53.5% above their 1913 level, down from the 68.7% margin of just twelve months before. First-class postage remained at 2 cents.

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