Value of $100 in 1926, adjusted to 1930

What happened to prices between 1926 and 1930

Between 1926 and 1930, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.7 to 16.7. Cumulatively, prices declined 5.6%, which works out to an average of -1.44% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1926 bought what $1.06 buys in 1930.

Consumer prices rose 1.1% in 1926, a third straight year of mild inflation and part of the price stability that defined the middle of the decade. Florida’s real estate boom, which had peaked the previous year on speculative buying of undeveloped land, ended abruptly that September when the Great Miami Hurricane made landfall near the city, killing hundreds and wrecking the market for land whose value had rested on continued speculation rather than anything underneath it. In Detroit, Henry Ford moved his company to a five-day, 40-hour work week without cutting pay, a break from the standard six-day schedule that other large employers would gradually adopt over the following decades; Ford argued publicly that workers with more leisure time would also become better customers for the cars his factories built. Consumer prices remained low enough by historical standards that a first-class stamp still cost just 2 cents, the same price it had held since mid-1919.

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The destination year: 1930

Consumer prices fell 2.3% in 1930, a mild decline compared with what was coming but the first sign that the summer 1929 downturn was not going to be short. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates that contraction from August 1929, and by the time it finally bottomed out in March 1933 it would run 43 months, the longest of any downturn in the NBER’s chronology back to 1854. Congress made the trade picture worse in June, when President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising duties on more than 20,000 imported goods to some of the highest levels in a century. Trading partners retaliated with tariffs of their own, and global trade volumes collapsed over the next several years, deepening a downturn economists still debate how much the tariff itself worsened. The financial system cracked that fall: a regional banking panic culminated in the December 11 failure of the Bank of United States in New York, at the time the largest bank failure in American history, wiping out more than $200 million in deposits. It was the first of four banking panics that would hit the country before 1933 was out. Consumer prices still stood 68.7% above their 1913 starting point, but the direction had clearly turned. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged for eleven straight years.

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