Value of $100 in 1921, adjusted to 1970

What happened to prices between 1921 and 1970

Between 1921 and 1970, the Consumer Price Index went from 17.9 to 38.8. Cumulatively, prices increased 116.8%, which works out to an average of 1.59% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1921 bought what $0.46 buys in 1970.

Consumer prices fell 10.5% in 1921, the mirror image of the wartime inflation that had more than doubled the cost of living between 1913 and 1920. The Depression of 1920-21, one of the sharpest contractions in U.S. history, bottomed out that July according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, even though it had lasted barely eighteen months. Unemployment climbed toward one worker in ten as businesses cut production and prices to work through wartime inventories, but the same collapse in prices also meant the recovery, once it started, had room to run without reigniting inflation. Warren Harding took office March 4, promising a return to “normalcy” after a decade of war, pandemic, labor unrest, and rapid price swings; his administration moved quickly to cut top income tax rates and federal spending. Congress also acted on immigration that year: the Emergency Quota Act, signed May 19, capped annual arrivals from each country at 3% of that nationality’s population in the 1910 census, the first time the United States had set a numerical ceiling on immigration. The law favored northern and western Europe and cut total immigration by more than half compared with prewar levels; Congress tightened the formula again in 1924. First-class postage held at 2 cents, unchanged since mid-1919.

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The destination year: 1970

Consumer prices rose 5.7% in 1970, up from 1969’s 5.5%, extending a run of faster price growth that stretched back to the mid-1960s, even as a recession that began in December 1969 pushed unemployment toward 6%. Prices and joblessness rising together confounded the era’s economic thinking, which held that policymakers could trade a little more inflation for a little less unemployment; 1970 was an early sign that trade-off was breaking down, a pattern that would harden into stagflation later in the decade. Washington restructured how it delivered mail that year: after postal workers staged the first strike ever by federal employees that March, Congress passed the Postal Reorganization Act in August, replacing the cabinet-level Post Office Department with the independent U.S. Postal Service. Environmental policy also took shape in 1970. An estimated 20 million Americans marked the first Earth Day on April 22, and the Environmental Protection Agency opened that December to enforce the Clean Air Act and the pollution rules that followed. The Vietnam War kept dividing the country: on May 4, National Guard troops fired on antiwar demonstrators at Kent State University in Ohio, killing four students and setting off strikes on hundreds of campuses. A median household earned $8,734 that year, a gallon of gas averaged 36 cents, and a first-class stamp cost 6 cents, the rate it had held since 1968. Prices stood 291.9% above their 1913 level by the end of 1970, a milestone that would look almost mild against the decade still to come.

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