Value of $100 in 2019, adjusted to 2021

What happened to prices between 2019 and 2021

Between 2019 and 2021, the Consumer Price Index went from 255.657 to 270.97. Cumulatively, prices increased 6.0%, which works out to an average of 2.95% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 2019 bought what $0.94 buys in 2021: the 2019 dollar lost 5.7% of its purchasing power over these 2 years.

2019 was the last ordinary year before COVID-19. Consumer prices rose 1.8%, slightly under the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with gasoline averaging $2.60 a gallon. Median household income jumped to $68,703, the highest on record up to that point, and the median new home sold for about $328,000. A first-class stamp rose to 55 cents.

The Fed reversed course. After four increases in 2018, it cut rates three times, to 1.50–1.75%, citing slower global growth, trade tensions, and low inflation. In July the expansion that began in June 2009 became the longest in U.S. records, and in August the yield curve briefly inverted, a signal investors read as a recession warning.

For workers at the bottom of the pay scale, 2019 marked a milestone of a different kind. The federal minimum wage stayed at $7.25 and reached its tenth year without an increase, the longest gap since the wage was first set. Because prices had climbed about 19% since it was last raised in 2009, its buying power was lower than at any point in that span.

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The destination year: 2021

In 2021, prices rose 4.7% and $100 from 2019 had the buying power of $106; the year's average CPI of 270.97 is the level behind every 2021 figure on this page.

2021 was the year inflation stopped being background noise. Consumer prices rose 4.7% on average for the year, and the pace kept building as the months went on: by December, the 12-month rate had reached 7.0%, the highest since 1982. The proximate cause was a supply chain that could not keep up with a fast-reopening economy. A global semiconductor shortage choked new car production and pushed used vehicle prices up by more than a third, the single largest line item in the year’s inflation math. Lumber, appliances, and shipping capacity told versions of the same story: demand snapped back faster than factories, ports, and truckers could handle it. Washington added fuel in March with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, on top of the relief already in the pipeline since 2020. For most of the year, the Federal Reserve called the price surge “transitory,” a temporary reopening effect expected to fade on its own, and held its policy rate near zero. By November, with inflation still climbing, the Fed reversed course and began winding down its bond purchases, the first step toward the rate hikes that would follow in 2022. Gas averaged $3.01 a gallon for the year, up from about $2.17 in 2020, while the federal minimum wage held at $7.25, unchanged since 2009. In hindsight, 2021 reads as the hinge year: the point where “transitory” inflation became the multi-year fight the Fed spent the next two years trying to win.

More about inflation in 2021 →