Value of $100 in 1915, adjusted to 1918

What happened to prices between 1915 and 1918

Between 1915 and 1918, the Consumer Price Index went from 10.1 to 15.1. Cumulatively, prices increased 49.5%, which works out to an average of 14.35% per year. Put differently, a dollar in 1915 bought what $0.67 buys in 1918.

Consumer prices rose 1.0% in 1915, the second straight year of near-flat inflation before the wartime price surges of 1916 through 1918. The year’s defining event had nothing to do with prices directly: a German submarine sank the British liner Lusitania off the Irish coast on May 7, killing 128 Americans and hardening U.S. opinion against Germany two years before the country entered the war. Economically, 1915 was a turning point of a different kind. A recession that had dragged on since 1913 began lifting as Britain and France placed growing orders for steel, munitions, and other war materiel with American manufacturers, and U.S. exports to the Allied powers climbed sharply through the year. That demand would keep building through 1916, eventually pulling prices up with it. On the regulatory side, the Federal Trade Commission opened for business in March, taking on enforcement of the Clayton Antitrust Act that Congress had passed the previous fall. A first-class stamp still cost 2 cents, unchanged since 1885 and still two years from its first wartime increase.

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The destination year: 1918

1918 brought the steepest annual price increase the CPI had recorded: consumer prices rose 18.0% for the year, edging out 1917’s already sharp 17.4% as the economy stayed at full wartime mobilization for most of the year. A first-class stamp cost 3 cents, up from 2 cents the previous November under the War Revenue Act’s wartime tax increases. The war itself ended on November 11, when Germany signed an armistice with the Allied powers after more than four years of fighting in Europe, but the inflation built up over a year and a half of mobilization did not disappear along with the fighting. The bigger public health story that year was the influenza pandemic that reached the U.S. in a mild spring wave and then returned that fall in a far deadlier form, eventually killing roughly 675,000 Americans, more than the country’s combat losses in the war. It hit factories, docks, and shops alongside households, adding disruption to an economy already strained by wartime demand. Prices would keep climbing even after the armistice, into the postwar surge of 1919.

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